What’s the right way to rebalance a portfolio?

Nice brief article from Monevator on portfolio rebalancing:

What’s the right way to rebalance a portfolio is a question often asked and about as simple to answer as what’s the right way to end a relationship – the results vary according to circumstance and personal style.

A number of different portfolio rebalancing methods exist, but there’s no clear-cut evidence that there is one system to rule them all.

Research by the respected fund shop Dimensional Fund Advisors concludes:

There is no easy one-size-fits-all rebalancing solution. Rebalancing decisions should be driven by the need to maintain an allocation with a risk and return profile appropriate for each investor. The optimal rebalancing strategy will differ for each investor, depending on their unique sensitivities to deviations from the target allocation, transaction frequency, and tax costs.

When it comes to rebalancing, like so many things in life, it’s doing it that counts, not exactly how you do it.

Read the full article here.

I’m a fan of keeping it simple. Excessive rebalancing complicates your taxation situation and drives up investment costs. Rebalancing every year or so if the portfolio mix has materially changed seems sensible.

On China, stay sceptical

I was in China a few months after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Guangdong, the manufacturing heartland bordering Hong Kong, was a mess. Factories were closing and previously buzzing night spots were shuttered. Yet the economy kept chugging along according to official statistics.  I assumed they were making them up.

The Chinese government response to the Global Financial Crisis, was to order a massive indiscriminate lending binge. They responded to a crisis caused by sub-prime lending, by accelerating their own sub-prime-lending. China undoubtedly cooks its GDP figures, but the lending binge did support the economy.

The below chart shows the Chinese miracle has involved an unprecedented acceleration in indebtedness.

Source: Blackrock

China’s private debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has surged to more than 200%. Never has a big economy piled up so much debt so quickly…

…Thanks to its large domestic savings rate, it has little external debt—the original sin that has sparked many emerging market (EM) crises. Beijing is working on fixes for internal debt issues, such as turning short-term bank debt into long-term bonds and redirecting credit to the private sector and households. But ultimately, China needs to find more sustainable engines of growth beyond further debt accumulation by unproductive national and local SOEs, or accept slower growth.

High foreign debt prevents aggressive currency devaluations. By choosing not to borrow from foreigners, China has left open their ability to significantly devalue the currency to enable export fuelled growth. It will be interesting to see if China will risk a devaluation, with an US President more focused on protecting jobs than his predecessors. A currency devaluation won’t work if the response from the developed world is tariffs.

There are two other key unresolved questions when looking at China’s medium to long-term prospects. (1) How much longer can China keep piling on debt?; and (2) Will the political system be able to absorb lower growth?

On China, stay sceptical.

NB: If you want to see how your country I positioned on the above chart, go here.

6 questions everyone should ask when investing

Passive investing is all the rage. Active managers have been enriching themselves for decades, taking too much of the upside and none of the downside. Recent research shows the more outrageous hedge funds were charging up to 5% to 6% per annum in management fees plus a performance fee. The consistent underperformance of active funds has seen a dramatic shift in money to index funds and ETFs. Large, often underfunded pension funds are looking more closely at fees as well, in the face of underperformance and political pressure.

For most people, the sensible (but less exhilarating) approach to investment is clearly index funds or ETFs. However, this increasingly common knowledge does not provide guidance on how to invest passively. That is, which types of assets should you invest in, and how should the portfolio be allocated. Take a look at the historical performance of different Blackrock ETFs:

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Source: Blackrock website

There is a significant difference in returns over all time horizons. However, unless, you are Hindsight Capital, one cannot know which investments will deliver the greatest returns in the future.

Now, let’s look at the current situation:

  • American stock market is near all-time highs, with the S&P 500 trading at ~25x earnings
  • Interest rates are near zero, or below zero in most markets
  • China remains fragile, and no-one is really sure how fragile the financial system is
  • A loose cannon is in The Whitehouse
  • EU is still hobbling along
  • Technology continues to develop at a rapid pace
  • Service industry businesses are increasingly global and scalable
  • Despite all the noise, the global GDP keeps on growing

Some elements of the current environment are scary, others are comforting. For those seeking to invest, there are no easy answers. Investors need to choose a fund, or construct a portfolio which suits them. When doing so, I suggest asking yourself the below six questions.

Q1: Do I have enough cash set aside to deal with expenses to cover life’s ups and downs?

If you have insufficient cash set aside, you may be forced to liquidate assets to meet expenses when markets are down, which can destroy returns. You should be able to cover an extended period of unemployment or medical expenses without dipping into your investments.

Q2: Do I understand the fee structure?

Index funds and ETFs have the reputation of being low fee. However, more exotic ETFs can have fees over 1.5%. For low fees, stick to basic/core products offered by industry leaders such as Vanguard and Blackrock.

Q3: How liquid is the product?

ETFs are launched daily. More exotic and smaller ETFs can be less liquid than the core index products. This means they may trade at a significant variation to Net Asset Value, and be difficult to sell during volatile periods.

Q4: Do I understand what is in the index fund/ETF and implications for returns and risk?

Geographic and industry concentration are key considerations. Seemingly broad indexes can actually be highly concentrated. For instance the ASX 200 (200 largest Australian companies) ~40% financial services! Lessening concentration reduces risk (and potentially returns).

Q5: Am I the type of person who is likely to get nervous and pull money out of the market after a downturn?

Research has shown that many retail investor buy shares on the way up, and then liquidate after a crash, therefore missing the recovery. If you are prone to fiddle, a fund may be a better option than individually managing the portfolio.

Q6: Do I enjoy investing?

If you enjoy the process of investing, or the gambling aspect of it, you can set aside a small proportion of your assets for active management. Keep in mind, if you are investing in single stocks, or more exotic ETFs such inverse German bund products, there is the chance they go to zero or go up 100x. Make sure you are comfortable with the former, don’t bank on the latter.

So, what portfolio will give the greatest returns? No idea. Ensure you understand what you are investing in, and design a portfolio which allows you to sleep peacefully.